Technically it is summer.  Summer solstice will be here next week and Father's Day is this weekend.  But, did someone forget to turn on the sunshine?  After a slow cold spring many of us convinced ourselves that sunshine would be just around the corner. 

Maybe the lack of sun is the reason record numbers of buyers have been on our website looking at homes this past week?  It's true there have been double the number of unique visitors on our site this week.  If they are interested in buying a home in the price range above $275,000 they will find a huge selection.  Take a look at the number of homes on in the Palmer Wasilla area that came on the market this week, versus the homes that pended and sold:

 Total Actives   New Actives this week   New Pendings & New Solds this week

       710                      60                               22                   20

When there are more homes being listed for sale than are pending and selling, we are gaining inventory.  This trend needs to change before we will have equilibrium in the market place across all price ranges.  As I have mentioned before the bright spot is under $275,000.  This price range continues to be a normal market with 2-3 months of supply.  Over $275,000 continues to be a challenging market with more homes for sale than there are buyers.  If you have questions about your home, email me at Kristan@KristanCole.com  or call 373-3575.  Kristan

What’s Happening to Our Market You Ask?

Our real estate market is continuing to stabilize, but we still have a ways to go.  The number of foreclosures in March was the highest so far since our market started to decline.  Those foreclosed homes must work there way through the system before our market can completely stabilize.  That being said there are positives to be pointed out about our market.  While the $275,000 - $500,000 price range is still flooded with inventory, under $275,000 the market is “very normal” with only a 2-3 month supply in any given price range.  I don’t like to use averages because it can skew what’s really going on in the market, but I will share a few statistics here that will help us all understand why our market has not stabilized.  The number of new residential listings as compared to 2007 at this same time is up 22% so far this year.  Also compared to 2007 the number of under contract homes or pending home sales is down 21% and the number of sold homes down 23%.  When the number of listings coming on the market is more than the previous year and the pending sales and sold homes are less, it creates an over supply of inventory.  This inventory must be absorbed before the market stabilizes.  On a positive note, the average sales price is across the market is still stable at $220,000 and the average sale to list price remains 98% on average.  The linked chart shows graphically what I am describing here.  On another note, the geographic areas of the market that are suffering the most are Houston and Willow.  The number of pending sales and actual sold sales is way off compared to 2007.  Houston is down 60%.  Ouch.  In the sort term gas prices will continue to hurt the Mat Su market as there will be buyers who choose to buy in Anchorage rather than commute.  In the long run, we have the land for growth and we will continue to be the fastest growing area in the state.   New jobs in the retail and health care continue to increase.  There is a new prison to be built.  And the “big deal” for us and the rest of the state rests on our legislators as they debate whether to approve the Trans Canada Alaska natural gas pipeline plan.  If you have questions about your home or your property, please call me  907-373-3575 or email me Kristan@KristanCole.com  

There is one sign that our market is improving that we can’t miss, and that’s when our phone rings with new customers ready to buy or sell.  But there are other indicators—not including the familiar days on the market, new listings per month, and new contract activity.  Here in Wasilla we sold 34 more homes in April than we did in March; the number of days on the market came down from 126 to 98.  We still have more new listings coming on the market than typical which means in some price ranges we still have an excess supply of inventory. 

 

Bottom line is the market is making progress.  As long as builders continue to curtail their spec building in the $300,000 plus range our market will continue to recover.  As I have said before, sellers are in a pricing war and a beauty contest at the same time.  If you want to sell you have to "be the prettiest" and the "lowest price" as compared to your competition.

 

5 Signs of a Housing Market Pickup

Sign #1:  New Jobs vs. New Housing:  Historically one new home owner is created for every two new jobs, so if job creation continues in Wasilla and builders scale back on production, it’s just a matter of time before the supply and demand equation moves toward equilibrium. 

 

Sign #2:  Fewer Builder Concessions:  Look for new home builders to curtail their offerings of paying buyer closing costs, offering selling bonuses or other concessions they rolled out at the start of the downturn.

 

Sign #3:  Months’ Supply:  We had a 10-18 months supply (depending on the price range) of housing during most of 2007.  Currently in price ranges under $250,000 the supply of homes is 3-4 months.  Over $250,000 the months’ supply is still 7-9 months. 

 

Sign #4 Visitors per Listing:  Look at the visitor trends on web sites.  The more visitors looking at homes on line and the more pages they look at suggest buyers are getting serious. On my web site we typically have 135 unique visitors per day viewing over 1200 pages.  Friday we had 292 unique visitors on the site. 

 

Sign #5 Rising Number of Homes Under Contract (pending sale):  When the number of new listings per month is similar to the number of new contracts, we have equilibrium.  If the number of new listings outpaces new contracts per month, we still have a growing inventory of homes which will equate into greater supply than demand.  We haven’t reached equilibrium in our market in most price ranges yet, but we are moving closer each month. 

 

Will you regret not buying in 2008?  With low interest rates, motivated sellers, and reduced prices, will people look back at 2008 and wonder why they didn't take advantage of an ideal buying situation?  This is the beginning of my 25^th year in real estate.  I had only been selling for 4 years when the market declined to an all time low in 1988 through 1990.  Many of my friends later told me how they regretted not buying when the market was at the bottom.  The trouble then as is the trouble now, none of us knew until after the fact where the bottom was.  What I do know is we have low interest rates, motivated sellers and job growth making this a great time to buy.  Call me anytime with questions, 907-373-3575  Kristan Cole.

April's residential numbers were much better than March.  There were 103 closed sales in April and there were only 69 in March.   The sale to list price ratio for April was 98% and it was 95% in March, and finally the Average Days on Market was 98 and March was 126.  Bottom line is the market is making progress.  As long as builders continue to curtail their spec building in the $300,000 plus range our market will continue to recover.  As I have said before, sellers are in a pricing war and a beauty contest at the same time.  If you want to sell you have to "be the prettiest" and the "lowest price" as compared to your competition.  If you want to know specifics about your home and how to stage it "to sell", email me or call me, it would be our pleasure to help you be successful.

If you haven't entered already, please email me to enter our King Salmon Fishing Trip for two contest.  Drawing for the trip will be on May 20^th. 

Check out our Best Buy Listif you are looking for a home or an investment property.  Interest rates are lower than ever.  It's a great time to buy in 2008.  We regularly post our thoughts about the very best buys in the Valley.  If you would like to see the best buy list from this past week, click here. 

Happy Cinco de Mayo

Blogger Asks Consumers: 'Will You Regret Not Buying?'

With low interest rates, motivated sellers and reduced prices in many parts of the real estate world, will people look back at 2008 and wonder why they didn't take advantage of an ideal buying situation? In 1988 and 1989 there were lots of good deals, but few took advantage of it.  A few years later, many found were kicking themselves in the pants wishing they had. Here is an article that was posted by Kelly Sibilsky with RE/MAX Unlimited Northwest on March 30, 2008.

 

Will 2008 be the year you wish you'd bought real estate?

With lower interest rates and plenty of homes to choose from, now may be the right time for you to purchase real estate. Today's lower interest rates may not be around when prices flatten out, so trying to time the market rarely works to your advantage. Another problem with trying to time the market is that it requires a rising market to know just where the bottom was ... hindsight is always 20-20, isn't it?

In many cases, purchasing a home may be cheaper than renting. In my market area, it is difficult to find a decent rental unit for under $1,300/mth. That's $15,600/year that could have gone towards your own mortgage, instead of paying your landlord's mortgage for him. Your landlord loves you, by the way, because you're making him rich. You are literally buying his property instead of your own. Think about it.

Then there is the distressed (foreclosure) property market. While many of these properties have condition issues and other challenges, in many cases they are priced below market value and offer opportunity for those willing to put in a little sweat equity to make a profit. If you are considering purchasing a distressed property, I suggest you consult a real estate agent who specialized in the foreclosure market to assist you. It can be tricky to navigate.

All investments carry some level of risk, and purchasing real estate is certainly no exception. This is not the time to make decisions that have not been carefully analyzed. What is a good purchase for an investor may not be a good purchase for a typical homebuyer. This is why you should always work with a real estate agent who can guide you in the right direction and provide the information you need to make an educated decision based on your individual circumstances.

Many people wish to wait "until next year, when prices may be lower" which of course, is a risk in and of itself. Prices may be lower, or may be higher. How many times have you waited for that special sweater at your favorite store to be marked down, only to discover that it was snapped up by someone else before you had the chance to purchase it? It may be a simple analogy, but the principle is the same: sometimes you snooze, you lose. If that's okay with you, then go ahead and wait it out. Hopefully you won't want to kick yourself a year from now.

The truth is, none of the experts can accurately predict the real estate market any better than the experts can accurately predict the stock market or what gas prices will be a year from now. If you purchased real estate in 2006 or 2007, you most likely got a great home at a terrific price with a low interest rate. Provided you stay in your home for several years (something I always recommend), you will benefit when property values eventually rise again.

I actually purchased my own home when the market was so hot that homes were selling in just days and for full list price. My home is now worth about $100,000 more than it was when I purchased it. Had I purchased a few years earlier, my home may be worth $25,000 more than that. Had I purchased just two years ago, my home may be worth about what I paid for it. That's the nature of real estate. Values go up, values go down, and when you purchase and sell makes all the difference.

For the typical homeowner, purchasing real estate should be a long term investment as well as a good little tax deduction, a place to live and make memories that will last a lifetime. Would I be comfortable selling my home in today's market and purchasing a new home? You bet your booties. In fact, I wish I could do just that, because I feel this market offers tremendous opportunities. The problem is, it's not the right time for me to do so because my youngest son has three more years of high school. If the market values are higher in three years, I will make more money on the sale of my home. Of course, I will also be paying more money for my new home. Therefore, I will not have gained anything by waiting and may actually lose money because of the higher purchase price on my new home and potentially higher interest rates. But that's life, folks. Sometimes you need to make decisions based on what is right for you and your family instead of making decisions based solely on the financials. So will 2008 be the year you wish you'd bought real estate?

First Quarter Marketing Report—The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

 

There is really no way around it.  The first quarter residential home sales were slow.  In the Palmer-Wasilla area the number of homes sales in the first quarter of 2008 as compared to 2007 was down 30 percent and the home sales volume was down 33%.  The total number of active homes for sale is higher than last year during the first quarter.  We currently have 737 homes on the market as compared to 666 last year.  What does all of this mean?  It means most sellers are in a pricing war and a beauty contest at the same time.  

                                    First quarter 2007          First quarter 2008        % change

Number of home sales              299                              209                  -30%   

Average Sales Price                  $229,090                     $221,507         -3%    

Appreciation                                                                 -3%                 -3%    

Average Days on Market          86                                110                   28%   

Change in interest rate               6.25%                          6.00%              -4%    

 

What can you do if you want to sell?  First, have your home STAGED.  First impressions can really make or break a showing.  With more properties on the market to choose from, we advise all of our sellers to make the most out of every showing opportunity.  And this is where staging comes in.  If a home is staged properly, then the seller has a much better chance of selling their home for more money and in less time.  Statistics bear this out.  In fact, one survey found that staged homes sold for almost 7 percent more than homes that were not staged, and sold in half the time! We provide this staging service for free to all of our clients.   Next, make your house SHINE! Everything must be spotless, including floors, walls, drapes and especially windows, and even door bell pads! ELIMINATE ODORS!  Bad odors can kill a showing quicker than anything.  Burn candles, bring in flowers, and display potpourri.  People really notice this, so sellers should take care here!
REMOVE CLUTTER: Remove excess furniture and knickknacks.  Only keep essential furnishings and focus attention on your rooms’ best features.  Personal property can distract from the overall showing experience.  And finally: Use COLOR!  Fresh paint makes a huge difference. Have carpets, countertops and cabinets in the latest styles and colors. Add flowers and upgraded landscaping to improve your home’s curb appeal.  By following these basic steps, a seller can do a lot to maximize their market opportunity and increase the perceived value of their home. If you would like more help with getting your home ready to sell, contact me at Kristan@KristanCole.com or 907-373-3575.

My good friends Dale and Robin Hamitt caught this 80 pound King Salmon a few years ago.  Sign up for our free King Salmon Fishing trip for two by emailing me and maybe you can catch one like this too.

Good News:  Someone is going to Mexico.  It's true.  The winner will receive two airline tickets, one week stay in Cabo San Lucas at one of only 3 hotels on the beach downtown.  It's a great trip with lots to see and do.  Brad and I are always thrilled to see who wins.  So, come and join us for some Mexican food and help us celebrate with the winners of this year's trip for 2 to Mexico.  We will be hosting our open house on February 28^th from 5:00 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.  We will be announcing the Mexico winners at the party and drawing for other prizes too and of course we will be there to answer any of your real estate questions. We look forward to seeing you there!

 

The above graph gives you an idea of what happened in the real estate market in 2007 as compared to 2006 when the market was the hottest for sellers.  In 2007, the number of home sales slowed and the number of days on the market increased; those are negative indicators.  The average sales price increased, there were few homes on the market for sale, and interest rates came down; those are positive indicators.  So what’s happening now?  Through February 8^th of 2008 we have sold 14% fewer homes than we did during this same time period in 2007; the average sales price is 4% lower and the number of days on the market has risen by 14%; those are negative indicators. The positive news is that the absorption rate for homes under $275,000 is stable.  We have a 3-4 month supply of homes listed for less than $275,000.  When we have less than a 6 month supply of homes on the market, NAR (National Association of Realtors) defines that as a normal, stable market.  In 2007 we also saw our population increase to over 70,000 and new jobs went up by 1% and that was positive.  Together with low interest rates, I believe our market in 2008 will be similar to that of 2007 even though we seemed to have started out a little slower.  So for those homes priced under $275,000 and in good condition, they will sell with normal marketing time.  Those homes priced over $275,000 are in a pricing war and a beauty contest.  They need to be in the best condition and at the same time have the best price if they expect to sell.  If you want to know specific information about your home, please call or email me.  Kristan

Don't forget I am giving away two lift tickets and a one night stay at our condo at Alyeska on February 21st.  Email me to sign up to win.  This should be fun, our condo is very near the base of chair 3. 

I am sure many of you are confused by all of the information you are receiving regarding the real estate market and foreclosures.  What's true, what's not?  The truth is we are experiencing some foreclosures in Alaska.  According to the Anchorage Daily News article in Monday's paper, foreclosure filings for the 4th quarter of 2007 were .19% for Anchorage and the Mat-Su combined.  Not 19%, but .19%, meaning less than 1% of all households in Anchorage and the Mat Su are in foreclosure. 

If you add up all of the foreclosure filings for the entire year, less than 1% of the households in Anchorage and the Mat Su are in foreclosure.  Most of these foreclosures are because of the sub-prime loans that were made in the last few years.  Sub-prime loans were rampant in the lower 48; not so, here in Alaska.   According to the ADN, through the 2nd quarter of 2007, there were 13,580 Alaskans that had acquired sub-prime loans.  That is a small number compared to the number of overall home loans. 

So what does this all mean?  True there are some foreclosures in Alaska; but fewer by far than the lower 48 average.  True: the real estate market in the Valley is stable for homes under $300,000, interest rates are lower than they have been in 2 years, and job growth and population growth continued in the Valley in 2007.  Does that mean we are insulated from the National economic slow down?  No not totally, but we aren't going to be affected as much as those states who saw huge appreciation in short period of time (like Southwest Florida, Las Vegas, Arizona, California) and who also had a lot higher percentage of exotic sub-prime loans.  As I mentioned earlier this week, if you would like to see Neal Fried's (economist for the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development) Mat Su Economic presentation he gave on Wednesday, just email me. 

Neal Fried presented the Mat Su Economic Report to the Valley Board of Realtors this week.  I have the power point presentation if anyone would like me to email it to them.  His report highlighted that our population continued to grow in 2007 with our population over 70,0000.  Jobs grew at 1% for 2007 which was the slowest growth since 1996.  He also shared that residential sales were down in 2007 as compared to 2004, 2005, & 2006.  If you want the monthly report you can sign up at Alaska Economic Trends. 

Shanna Lantto turned 30th today.  Shanna has been on our team now for almost 9 years.  We had a cake made for her by Diane's Catering and celebrated with her.  We told her she isn't older....just more mature! 

The CRS Certified Residential Specialist Conference was held in Oahu, Hawaii this year.  Brad and I were both invited to speak at the conference where about 900 real estate agents from across the country came together to learn more about selling is a soft market. 

Brad & I also got away for a much needed vacation to Maui.  We were supposed to go in October, but our trip got postponed as I work hard with others on Matanuska Maid.  We returned home to 20 below temperatures, but at least its sunny every day and the days are getting longer.  The real estate market seems to be picking up a little and that's good news for everyone. 

Happenings on The Kristan Cole Team:

Jesse Tanner my 2nd oldest son and also a listing partner on our team got married on Maui yesterday.  Here is a picture of Jesse and Jen on the beach as they exchange vows.  Makes a Mom cry (happy tears)

Brad Cole here on our team has a busy year ahead.  He is a Commissioner on the State of Alaska Real Estate Commission Board, the President of the Valley Board of Realtors, a Director on the Alaska Association of Realtors Board, and is a Director on the CRS Board (Certified Residential Specialist).  Whew makes me tired just thinking about all of those meetings.  This is great news for our community as Brad will have the pulse on National Real Estate issues as well as our local market.  If you have real estate questions, just leave a comment here on our blog and we will answer your question.

Brad and I just attended and taught classes at the certified residential real estate conference.  This year the conference was in Hawaii which was great given that it's dark and cold here at home.  We met up with Tricia Andreasen, the CEO of Prostep Marketing.  She is the one who designed our current web site and blog.  We took a goofy fun picture together in front of a poster she had made up for the conference on my web site.  The weather on Oahu was terrible.  It rained every day and the wind blew about 25 mph.  Good thing we were inside teaching classes on real estate.  I taught classes on marketing strategies for 2008 and Brad taught on negotiating skills in a soft real estate market.  There were over 900 attendees at the conference.  We had a chance to meet and have dinner with our good friends Bryan & Sharnee Epley who own the RE/MAX of Alyeska real estate company.  It was good to see them.  Funny how you have to travel out of state sometimes to see your good friends.  We also were able to get together in small groups and discuss the big issues facing our industry.  We are well equipped with proven strategies to get homes sold in our current market.  If you have questions, post a comment here or email me.  Kristan

I thought it would be fun to give away two lift tickets and an overnight stay at our condo in Alyeska.  It's right at the base of Chair 3 so you can walk out the door and catch the lift.  If you would like to be entered to win, email me at Kristan@KristanCole.com  and I will enter you to win.  I will be drawing for the winner on February 21. 

Every year we have our open house and give away our trip for two to Mexico.  Our Open House will be February 28th from 5:00 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.  Come and join us for some Mexican food and help us celebrate with the winners of this year's trip.  Should be good timing.  If you are like me, January and February are when I could really use some sunshine.  Two lucky people are going to get some.  Don't worry we will have some other prizes also.  See you then.  Call me at 373-3575 if you need directions. 

January 19, 2008

I was humbled, but thrilled when The Grainger Leadership Institute presented me with a leadership award at their annual event honoring those professionals that most personify the qualities of leadership in business.   

“The winner of this award stands tall among even the most accomplished in her industry. Her ability to inspire her team stems from a deep commitment to over-serve her clients. I am very impressed with her understanding of group dynamics and her commitment to delivering a higher standard through the power of team work. These qualities have earned Kristan Cole the 2007 GLI Team Builder of the Year Award.”  Mark Grainger  Click Here

 

I just returned from Dallas where I taught a course to other Realtors from across the country on Team Training and Systems Implementation.  Whenever I teach a class I think I always learn more than the attendees do.  I found myself excited to come home and work on some systems within our own team in order to provide better customer service to all of you.  That's what its all about....exceeding expectations.  Here is a photo of me and some of the attendees. 

Reminder--- Email me to sign up for the FREE giveaway is for tickets for two to the Alaska Native Heritage Center along with a book from the center; great for friends and family that will be visiting this summer.  Also a two gift cards for $20 to North Star Bakery just down the street from me here in Wasilla.  Email me no later than January 14^th to be entered to win.  Also don’t forget about our warm coats—warm hearts coat drive for children.  Drop off at our office anytime this month.

If you are thinking of listing your home in the spring, now is the time to start cleaning up and clearing out the clutter so you’ll be good to go in 2008!  I wrote a “State of the Real Estate Market” article for the Frontiersman newspaper that comes out at the end of the month.  This is good information for anyone looking to sell in 2008 or anyone just wanting to know the real facts about the residential real estate market.

Attention all seniors graduating from High School in May of 2008.  Apply for one of our three scholarships we will be awarding this year.   We give away 3 scholarships totaling $3000 each year to graduation seniors. 

Attention all renters!  This is a great time to buy with low interest rates and several new homes to choose from.  Stop throwing away rent and start earning equity. 

Red Cross award.  The local Red Cross Chapter Thanks the Kristan Cole Team for monetary contributions and whole blood and plasma donations

 

State of the Residential Real Estate Market

 

If You Want To Sell Your Home in 2008, Don't Wait Until Summer

By Kristan Cole

 

Most sellers think they will get more money for their house if they wait and sell in the summer months when the flowers are out and their home looks its best.  Not true!  During late winter and early spring the housing inventory is lower.  When the inventory is lower, sellers have the best chance at getting the highest price.  In early summer months our existing inventory typically doubles and of course the new construction starts.  So if you need to sell this year and want to get the most money for your home, don't wait until summer, start early in February.  Sellers consistently get more money for their homes when they sell in during the months of February, March and April.  After 23 years in the real estate field and selling over 1000 homes here in the Wasilla-Palmer area I have found this trend to be consistent year after year. 

 

So what really happened in 2007?  Fortunately the real estate market here in Alaska did not suffer like much of the lower 48 did.  According to the Alaska Multiple Listing Service, 1480 homes sold here in the Mat Su Borough in 2007.  That is 11.7% fewer homes than 2006, but the average median sales price went up by 1.4%.  The average sales price in 2007 was $227,454 and the average number of days on the market was 78.  As of January 2, 2008 there were 561 homes on the market for sale.  Based on the sales in 2007 and a current inventory of 561 homes, we have about a 3-4 month supply of homes for sale.  According to the National Association of Realtors, when the number of months of supply is less than 6, the market is stable; a “normal market”. 

 

My team and I sold 167 homes in 2007.  Many of our sellers had tried to sell their homes before, but had been unsuccessful.  We sold Bob & Donna Council’s home and they said this about their experience, “We should have called Kristan the first time around.  She sold our home for top dollar in a tough market after it was listed with a different Realtor for three months”.  It would be our pleasure to help you if you are interested in selling, call or email us today 907-373-3575, Kristan@KristanCole.com so that we can put our experience to work for you.  For up to date market information year around, click on my blog on my web site at www.KristanCole.com