This report shows is how many months of supply we have in each price range in the Wasilla-Palmer market.  For example, currently there are 32 homes active for sale in the $245,000 to $255,000 price range.  In the last 12 months, 42 homes were also sold in that same price range.  We then can calculate how many months it would take to sell all 32 homes currently active for sale if not one more home came on the market for sale.  We have a 9.1 month supply of homes in the $245,000 to $255,000 price range. 

There are several price ranges where we have a very normal market.  A normal market is where the number of months of supply of homes for sale in a particular price range is less than 6 months. A buyers market is where the supply of homes is greater than 6 months.

12/04/2008   Residential Absorption Report

Trust your vision even if darker days lie ahead

Only two and a half shopping days left before Christmas. Don’t worry, there’s still plenty of time for late shoppers like me to email Santa their Christmas wish list. I’m sure the current recession has most of Santa’s elves looking for work, just like many of us.

I have two Christmas lists this year, one for me and one for the residents of SW Florida. I won’t bore you with what’s on my seven-page list, but you may be interested in what I hope you find under your Christmas tree.

Actually, the only thing I put on your list was night vision goggles. Admittedly, this choice may not be as exciting as a turbo gas grill, or as fun as gas powered Margarita machine. But, night goggles may get more use because some experts are saying that darker days are ahead. Practical gifts are seldom appreciated; however, there may be an exception this year, particularly from potential property sellers or anyone worrying about staying in business in the coming year.  

There’s nothing worse that stumbling around in the dark, because even a tiny obstacle can trip you up. In a familiar environment, like the path from our bedroom to the refrigerator, we can maneuver with the grace of Gene Kelly, even in total darkness. Wake up in strange surroundings without the ability to see and we become nearly immobile as we try to feel our way to where we want to go.

Many are predicting that we may be ­waking to see strange economic surroundings. The bursting of the real estate bubble wasn’t unexpected nor the consequences unfamiliar to us. We have been in a buyer’s market before, we have seen real estate prices fall, we have seen lenders tighten credit and we have seen new construction slow. We remember what it’s like to live with a little less. If we were dealing with just a temporary oversupply of real estate, we would have no trouble maneuvering our business around the obstacles that are in front of us.

We had to be patient and prudent. It would just be a matter of time before our sunshine would lure a flock of shivering snowbirds or a wave of baby boomers to jump start our market again. Regional economic slowdowns throughout the eastern United States were only minor inconveniences to our recovery because we could always count on other parts of the country to pick up the slack.

However, something’s different this time. The external circumstances across the nation are changing. Economic uncertainty and consumer confidence are moving in opposite directions. Well established corporations and financial institutions have failed or are in trouble and unemployment is no longer isolated in the rust belt. If negative economic news was cloud cover, we would be living in total darkness.

The obvious problem with darkness is it makes it difficult to see. What may not be as obvious is that not seeing is only a minor inconvenience, when compared to the real problem we face, which is having a lack of vision. Night vision goggles will only help you see. Having vision is up to you.

What is your vision for you, your business or your real estate situation? One way to tell is to close your eyes and describe what you see. If you see the same thing with your eyes closed that you see with them open, then you have a vision problem. On the other hand, if you envision your business surviving the challenges that lay ahead, then it really won’t matter what you see in the coming months. Your vision will direct you to opportunities that most will miss and will allow you to avoid obstacles that many will hit.

For the past year I chose to end every article with the words “Keep the Faith.” I do this because I have a vision of better days ahead for our real estate market and I believe it takes faith to trust in your vision.

Do you know what we can see with our eyes open? Looking back, we can see that almost twice as many homes sold in 2008 than did in 2007. In addition, the last three months were all record setting months in the number of homes sold. Prices are falling, lenders are becoming realistic sellers, buyers are buying and interest rates are falling. Looking back, it’s hard not to be optimistic.

Keep your eyes open and describe what you see looking forward. You will see a barrage of negative news, gloomy forecasts and a world that appears to be crumbling before our eyes. Where’s your optimism now? If we had to operate solely on what could see directly in front of us we would be living in fear most of the time. Thankfully, we can make a choice to either trust in what we see or what we envision

When I close my eyes I see a day when sellers don’t have to wear black to their closing. I see a day when I’m stuck behind a line of pickup trucks, full of construction workers on their way to one of their many jobs. I see the day when the last of our foreclosures are sold and our market returns to equilibrium. I don’t know when this day will come or what sacrifices I’ll have to make in the meantime, but I know it will come.

We have been here before, remember patience and prudence. In spite of the challenges ahead, keep your vision and trust in what you can’t see, because the sun will shine again.

Keep the Faith & have a Merry Christmas

Denny Grimes is President of Denny Grimes and Company, Realtors. He can be reached with comments and questions at 239-689-7600 or denny@dennygrimes.com.